On May 25 the Swedish Dialogue Institute for the Middle East and North Africa hosted a webinar entitled, “EU and the MENA region – good neighbours?” Challenges and opportunities facing the region were discussed with five prominent scholars, officials and commentators: Julien Barnes-Dacey (ECFR), Youssef Cherif (Columbia University, Tunis), Carl Hallergård (EEAS), Kristina Kausch (GMF) and Heba Morayef (Amnesty International, Beirut).
Southern Neighbourhood
The EU and MENA region are bound together by geography, history, and its people. It’s a relationship of co-dependency and mutual interest on economy, climate, and security etc. Council conclusions on the Southern Neighbourhood from April re-emphasized the need for a more democratic, greener, and prosperous region. At the same time, economic challenges, limited growth, corruption, migration, environmental challenges, governance failures and autocratisation continue to prevail. Furthermore, the MENA region continues to be one of the least integrated regions in the world. One panellist pointed to the threat of state collapse in the Levant. One key challenge was to both work around elites and try to encourage elites to reform. Several speakers pointed to the EU and MENA relationship as one of “still untapped potential”, while pointing to the key importance of engaging more with the region’s large young population.
It was mentioned that EU’s economic investment plan has been welcomed by the MENA countries and increased the visibility of the European Union in the region. Building incentives and funding into the cooperation has been important, and new potential lies in conducting a mid-term review to tweak, optimize, and revise the strategy to meet needs of partners. One panellist noted that while the new Southern Neighbourhood policy felt like a “déjà vu” of previous policies, a new element was the strengthened emphasis to join forces in fighting climate change and speeding up the twin green and digital transition and harness their potential. Inclusive growth, gender equality, youth empowerment, climate action, blue economy, energy transition and support to civil society has been stressed in the re-launch of the Southern Neighbourhood policy.
The EU’s strategic priorities and added value in the MENA vis-à-vis other actors
Several panellists mentioned that the EU’s limited geopolitical role was both a weakness and a potential strength. On the positive side this contributes to the EU being able to speak to all sides, especially in diffusing conflicts, and in contributing to more inclusive long-term solutions and thereby greater chances for sustainability. One panellist noted that it was not possible to separate EU’s more technical work from geopolitical. “You can’t work only in the background and let others take on the hot issues.” It was also argued that the EU needs stronger negotiating power. On the economic side, leveraging the EU’s internal market as an attractive means was highlighted and on the political side.
Speakers also pointed to historical shifts and said that while Europe (incl. individual European countries) some decades ago had been dominant player/s in the MENA region, Europe now “competes” with a number of other actors, esp. US and Russia. These countries, it was argued, applied more of zero-sum approaches. Panellists also pointed to an increased role of China in the region, but so far with an economic approach, rather than an overtly political one. It was stated that the EU primarily focuses on safeguarding the Union’s interests and prosperity in the long-term, and security in the short term. One speaker advised that the EU should do more to keep its relevance in the region alive and warned that China otherwise could be the Maghreb’s economic patron in 10 years, with risks of further deterioration in freedoms and governance. One panellist noted that the security dimension of EU policies was under-developed and argued that at a time when the US attempts to withdraw from the region, the EU needs to fill a space, before players like Russia and China do so. Communication and visibility could here play an important role. (Examples were given on how both Russia and China Russia had sent vaccine doses to some countries in the region even before the EU did and effectively used it in communication “campaigns”.)
Several speakers stressed that the main EU added value was the normative package of governance, values, human rights, and contacts to the people in the MENA. However, post-2011 it was perceived that these ambitions had been given lower priority or been exchanged for a return to counterterrorism and migration narratives. One panellist emphasized that the European Union’s human rights mechanisms were a specific added value and emphasized that it was now essential to give renewed life to the human rights instruments, protect and expand civic space and ensure conducive environments for human rights defenders to function.
All speakers – from the MENA region and Europe alike – stressed the importance of Europe to “speak with one voice”. It was advised that the EU and its member states move away from fragmentation in their approaches, and work for consistency and build on available policies and tools. This was essential, not least for European efforts to be taken seriously and for reaching successful results.
Expectations and perceptions of MENA countries
On a question from the moderator on how people in the MENA region perceive the EU, speakers pointed to anti-imperialist and anti-colonial sentiments remaining strong, and said it was important for Europeans to bear this in mind. One panellist noted that amongst populations in the MENA, the EU seemed weak and that many people have stronger sentiments towards and contacts with individual EU MS than the EU as a whole.
Regarding MENA expectations on the EU, speakers pointed to big differences between state actors and civil society/people. While states in the Southern Neighbourhood, regardless of type, both wish and expect more investments and less political pressure, most civil society actors wish and expect more political pressure and backing/support of grass-roots movements and democratic actors in the region.
The EU’s role and policy trends towards MENA
Panellists noted the lack of unity within the European Union and internal struggles on how to position itself. A reversion to bilateral approaches had been seen in the last decade. In parallel there had been a growing divide between member states, with some tending to be more value-based, and others rather emphasizing addressing issues related to migration and security.
One panellist noted the EU’s weakness in the field of conflict resolution and reminded that not one conflict had been resolved in the past 25 years, while several new conflicts had been added. The economic situation in MENA had not dramatically improved. However, speakers pointed to long-term cooperation on trade, digital and climate transition as areas were the EU-MENA relation had a good potential to develop.
Beyond the immediate southern neighbourhood, the Gulf area has become a new area of engagement in recent years, and a couple of new EU delegations have been opened. The EU role in the JCPOA and energy transition had also created growing interest from Gulf states to work more closely together.
Way forward and recommendations
The meeting ended with some recommendations from the panellists incl. on:
