Webinar on Climate and Security in the MENA region

These webinars are arranged monthly for colleagues in the Swedish Foreign Service, as well as from Sida, FBA, SI and other relevant organizations, to stimulate learning, exchanges and discussions on MENA related topics; and generate ideas for future activities for the dialogue institute.

The September webinar on Climate and Security looked at how climate change is having increasingly tangible physical, social and economic impacts across the globe, including for the MENA region. The discussion was guided by insights by two eminent experts, Elizabeth Sellwood (Chief, Environmental Security Unit at UNEP) and Johan Schaar (Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI). They introduced the UN’s approach to climate and security with a special focus on the role of the UN in the MENA region.

The speakers outlined impact by climate and environmental aspects on security and development in the MENA region. Several challenges and risks were mentioned, such as droughts, sea-level rise, extreme weather events, heat stress, adding to the already existing crisis of water and food. The risks are not static or linear and will likely be further intensified. The speakers highlighted the risk of situations where climate change may accelerate breaking points for a society already under strain, especially when combined with serious socio-economic grievances

Out of the determinants of impact, mixed adaptive capacity is the most important factor for dealing with it. In this regard, the MENA region’s response to climate and environmental impact is limited by insecurity, conflict and massive displacement, authoritarian and repressive governance structures, poor access to finance and technology, and a low level of awareness. Furthermore due to  weak regional organisations transboundary cooperation is absent/limited and make regional policies non-existent.

In the UN regional landscape, relevant roles and competencies exist. However, they have not been configured to address climate change and security as a collective. Similarly, political mandates haven’t included climate change related risks and there’s been a lack of an overarching shared strategy. High potential however exists in the new development architecture, including Peace and Development Advisers (PDAs). UN strengths include the extensive peace and security regional presence, including missions with transboundary responsibilities, technical analysis/assessment on Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment, and UN development system including the SDGs. Challenges for the UN system include the constant crisis management mode with UN staff dealing with many upcoming needs, and lack of work and cooperation across sectors and disciplines (despite deep expertise in many areas). Furthermore, working across different timeframes becomes a challenge, addressing both the week to week humanitarian challenges and political crisis, while at the same time looking and planning further into the future. While there is still a lot to do, momentum is building. There is an increased recognition that this is a critical issue to address from a peace and security perspective.

Recommendations included:

1. Need to create stronger and more consistent links between technical and political work, i.e. break political and technical silos. Political and technical staff need dialogue to bridge technical analysis with political frameworks and planning. Need to have technical staff informed by political analysis (and vice versa) and that political and policy staff have the technical information they need for analysis.

2. Climate analysis of political mandates. Review mandates with other UN entities and the SC. Identify contextual risks including climate change.

3. Climate change induced risks and peace agreements. Post-conflict agreements and settlements should integrate instruments for addressing local resource conflicts.

4. A UN strategy for transboundary issues. Coordinate UN efforts at addressing transboundary water problems underway, and potential for addressing other regional issues. DPPA with ESCWA and ECA should initiate one joined-up UN strategy with high-level leadership.

5. Shared understanding and shared responsibility. Build platform through annual in-country UN system-wide seminars that are informed by climate change updates. This context monitoring and analysis, and dialogue with others should be embed into the annual planning process.

6. A UN regional network. In the absence of functional regional organisations, the UN should establish a supportive regional network, to help bring transboundary issues forward. Network nodes should be the new UN development structure.

7. Typology of climate action. Use in-country seminars to identify climate change-related security gaps and opportunities. Climate change-relevant action includes resilience and adaptive capacity, conflict resolution, and transboundary management.

8. Sensitizing the public and authorities. Awareness should be built on the urgent here and now.

9. Language and concept. Avoid “hard security” connotations. Frame the narrative in SDG terms. Explain how fragile societies in conflict contexts are more susceptible to climate-related risks.

10. Research. Much is yet unknown, e.g. impacts on migration patterns, reasons for local tension, and local conflict resolution mechanisms.

 What can Sweden do and learn?

1. Contribute to dialogue between political and technical expertise, and dialogue between environmental and security branches.

2. Contribute to constructive and informed dialogue with decision-makers in the region.

3. Contribute to transboundary dialogue and to increased understanding that countries in the MENA are connected and share resources. Look beyond country context and be in touch with neighbouring missions.

4. Build a better understanding where we can build on how to get most traction (exploration of entry points and pursuing different relationships: technical, regional, development).

5. Cooperate with and support UN resident coordinator’s offices in raising awareness etc.

7. Encourage that re-shaping of regional economies (towards a more green economy) also help promote gender equality and inclusion of youth. Transformation of the economies in the region will not happen without educational components and providing green jobs. 

8. Look to civil society as partners.