OECD Economic Outlook sees recovery continuing but warns of growing imbalances and risks.
The global recovery is continuing but its momentum has eased and is becoming increasingly imbalanced according to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook. The failure to ensure rapid and effective vaccination everywhere is proving costly with uncertainty remaining high due to the continued emergence of new variants of the virus.
Output in most OECD countries has now surpassed where it was in late-2019 and is gradually returning to the path expected before the pandemic. However, lower-income economies, particularly ones where vaccination rates against COVID-19 are still low, are at risk of being left behind.
The Outlook projects a rebound in global economic growth to 5.6% this year and 4.5% in 2022, before settling back to 3.2% in 2023, close to the rates seen prior to the pandemic.
The strong pick-up in activity seen earlier this year is losing momentum in many advanced economies. A surge in demand for goods since economies reopened, and the failure of supply to keep pace, have generated bottlenecks in production chains. Labour shortages, pandemic-related closures, rising energy and commodity prices, and a scarcity of some key materials are all holding back growth and adding to cost pressures. Inflation has increased significantly in some regions, early in this recovery phase.
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