The Swedish Dialogue Institute for the Middle East and North Africa recently hosted a webinar on February 1st on the Arab uprisings ten years on. Three prominent MENA analysts - Hafsa Halawa, Nadim Houry and Khaled Mansour - and two Swedish ambassadors - Ann Dismorr (Lebanon/Syria) and Anna Block-Mazoyer (Tunisia/Libya) - took part in a panel and shared their reflections on the importance of the call for change in the MENA region that started with the uprisings in several of the region’s countries in the in 2010/2011.
The Swedish Dialogue Institute for the Middle East and North Africa recently hosted a webinar on February 1st on the Arab uprisings ten years on. Three prominent MENA analysts - Hafsa Halawa, Nadim Houry and Khaled Mansour - and two Swedish ambassadors - Ann Dismorr (Lebanon/Syria) and Anna Block-Mazoyer (Tunisia/Libya) - took part in a panel and shared their reflections on the importance of the call for change in the MENA region that started with the uprisings in several of the region’s countries in the in 2010/2011.
The beginning of a process
The speakers underscored that MENA is a vast region with many differences. However, the uprisings of 2010/2011, as well as the new wave of demonstrations in 2019/2020, had some common traits and drew inspiration from each other.
A key point during the discussion was that the uprisings should be seen as the beginning of a process of long-term change, rather than being described in terms of a “success” or a “failure”. The change that many expected from the wave of popular mobilizations in 2011 did not arrive, but the region has changed and will continue to change, while seeing a demographic shift with growing young population. “While the old world is dying, a new world is struggling to be born”, as one speaker put it.
The uprisings ten years ago had in other words been the starting point of a long process. The new wave of uprisings that the MENA region saw in 2019, with renewed calls for system change and renegotiation of the social contract, could be seen as part of a continuum.
Key challenges
The societal problems that led to 2010/2011 uprisings have not gone away. The region today faces the same underlying political and socio-economic challenges, e.g. governance failures, corruption, unemployment, and lack of freedom. These challenges have been further emphasised during the last decade. In addition, the conflicts that developed in several countries of the region have had far-reaching political, humanitarian, economic and social consequences within and beyond the region.
The speakers highlighted the need to address the widespread corruption. They stressed that the best way to support the population in these countries would be to hold corrupt rulers accountable. This would help to build trust with the local communities.
Another key challenge that was mentioned was the regions lack of political structures that could channel people’s concern and develop sustainable change programmes. The autocratic regimes have not allowed for political parties, trade unions and others to develop and hence there have been few ways to channel demands or address challenges. Furthermore, the civic space has been extremely limited and not allowed for public debates and exchanges. The speakers underlined the importance of creating conditions for a civic space to develop and said that intermediaries are needed to facilitate exchanges and dialogues.
The only country in the region that had developed in a democratic way since the uprisings is Tunisia. A contributing factor to the political transformation process had been the consensus building process and the role of civil society and trade unions. However, one participant argued, while institutions like trade unions and employer unions once constituted a mechanism for stabilizing democratic breakthrough, they now potentially slowed down the reform, as these mechanisms are still under-developed.
The role of external actors was also mentioned by the speakers as a complicating factor. Especially regional actors had contributed to sustaining and fuelling conflicts and to hampering the development of more progressive and reform-oriented policies.
In addition, the last year’s economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the historically low oil prices have further aggravated the situation and made living conditions even worse in many of the region’s countries.
“Transformation takes time”
The speakers pointed out that the current situation in the region is unsustainable - fiscally, politically and security wise. While elites across the region have largely preserved their positions and have been unable to re-imagine themselves and propose new solutions, they have also become more exposed to the consequences of their way of life and must accept that citizenry as vital.
The panellists stressed that transitions to democracy takes time, as each country must find its own path, incl. electoral systems that work, and mould modalities of how institutions can work together. But to achieve progress, deliberate work on multiple levels is needed, with short term, medium to long term goals. They emphasized that the change needed in the region, has to come from within, but may need support from outside.
So, what has then changed in the last decade? The speakers pointed to people today being more politically and socially aware than they were ten years ago. In terms of changes within the civic space, the speakers on one hand reminded that the civic space has in many countries even further been limited and threatened, on the other hand civil society has matured and today channel more holistic and progressive ambitions, e.g. on socioeconomic justice, women’s rights, environmental concerns and gender equality, incl. LGBTQI rights. They also said that civil society has become less formal and more virtual.
While development takes time, one of the panellists reminded that it is essential to not lose sight over the battles and challenges fought. It is therefore necessary to memorialize moments and infliction points over the last years and not let regimes re-write the history of struggles and deprivation. Stories should be memorialized as a collective citizen narrative. The term resilience was too often used to justify lack of attention to these challenges. Instead, we should look beyond the key words and focus on the values-driven agenda.
Role of the international community and donors
The speakers outlined that the EU would need to re-imagine the narrative and relationship with the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean and realise that “we’re stuck with each other” and that we’re co-dependant and need to, together, develop innovative policy solutions to mutual challenges. “Unfortunately, today, some see the region more as a threat to be managed” one speaker said. This threat-based narrative has driven a certain type of policies, including alliances with authoritarian rulers, restrictive migration policies and a focus on anti-terrorism. The speaker underlined that migration, as well as terrorism, were manifestations of bigger problems, and therefore, addressing the underlying causes would be a more efficient and sustainable method to apply.
While the change process in the region must come from within, the speakers mentioned that support from the outside could be important. They recommended that Sweden and the EU play a more influential role through genuinely values-driven engagement in the region. One speaker put it as: “instead of selling arms, EU countries should focus on dialogues and engagement”.
The panellists stressed the need to re-direct political and financial support in smarter and more calculated ways and consider conditionality. Since 2011 civil society has seen an evolvement, which was showcased in their more carved out focus and well-articulated demands. At the same time, it has become increasingly difficult for them to work, due to a further shrinking of the civic space. The speakers therefore recommended giving support to movements and broader initiatives, as well as to platforms that could facilitate the convergence of struggles (e.g. feminist movements interacting with human rights activists and the new labour movement), rather than over-focusing on current, more project-based models. Sweden is considered a reliable and sustainable donor, with a long-term commitment. In terms of scope for further improvements the speakers mentioned efforts to bridge gaps between different movements and contribute to finding synergies, e.g. between humanitarian, human rights, women’s rights, student, and environmental movements and organisations.
Recommendations
In conclusion the panellists recommended that Sweden and EU engage with the region based on a value-driven policy. The entry-point for engagement should be based on the perspective of being co-dependant partners that together need to develop innovative policy solutions to meet mutual challenges. Europe should continue to stress the imperative importance of sustainable and inclusive political, economic, and social reforms, incl. through support to local initiatives.
Dialogue is badly needed to bridge the trust gaps in the region and the Dialogue Institute could play an important role in facilitating dialogue between different stakeholders, through provision of safe space and by creating an environment for constructive exchanges between actors from different parts of society. The institute could also play a role in bridging gaps, increasing understanding, and developing innovative dialogues, ideas and collaborations between the MENA-region and Europe.
